The 2024 presidential election is a mere month away, and the clock is ticking for the Trump and Harris campaigns to snag the lead in an extremely tight race. After incumbent president Joe Biden exited the presidential race in July following weeks of pressure from the media and his allies, Vice President Harris swiftly became the democratic party’s frontrunner. According to Times/Sienna polls, Harris currently leads the race by two points compared to Biden’s three point lag behind Mr. Trump – and the demographic to thank for this five-point jump? Gen Z.
Young people have always been a crucial voting bloc, and one President Biden can thank for his victory in 2020. The previous presidential election saw an uptick in voters ages 18-26, a demographic that in 2024 encompasses over 40 million eligible voters according to USA Today. As Vice President Harris and former President Trump poll neck-and-neck in several swing states, the Gen Z turnout could easily sway the course of the election – and Harris and Trump both know it. Both candidates’ campaigns have made steps to appeal to a demographic half a century younger than them, but in very different ways.
The Harris campaign has continued to push progressive policies similar to that of Biden, but separated itself from some of Gen Z’s issues with the incumbent president. Whilst factors such as Ms. Harris’s age, race, and sex have given her an edge amongst young voters, especially with women and people of color, the incumbent vice-president has still made her share of more deliberate actions to appeal to this bloc. Harris has made an effort in her campaign to tie several issues Gen Z is most concerned with to Mr. Trump, such as the conservative manifesto “Project 2025” and abortion rights. Pew Research Center polls have found that roughly 76% of Americans aged 18-29 support legal abortion. This is a severe disadvantage for Mr. Trump, who has taken credit for the overturning of Roe V. Wade, the ruling which protected abortion at the federal level. Additionally, the Harris campaign has seemed to appeal more widely to young leftists concerned with the Israel-Palestine conflict more than the Biden campaign did, despite the incumbent president and vice-president’s positions on the matter being quite similar.
The Harris campaign has also found a powerful tool in social media, the favored platform of a significant amount of Gen Z. The campaign’s official X (formerly Twitter) account has 1.3 million followers and over 100 million Tik Tok likes and its target audience is clear. From coconut tree emojis to changing their social media banner to the same color as the summer’s hit album “Brat”, the Harris campaign has fully embraced Gen Z‘s “meme-culture” humor, a definite reflection of the social media team’s age. Endorsements from social media influencers and pop stars such as Taylor Swift and Charli XcX have also boosted Harris’s appeal with young voters.
The Trump campaign has also used social media to its advantage in a way nearly parallel to Harris’s. The campaign’s official X account has 2.4 million followers and about 44 million Tik Tok likes. Whilst Harris’s social media influencer endorsements and target demographics has often skewed female, Mr. Trump’s has leaned male. Appearing on the online shows of influencers like Adin Ross and Lex Fridman, Trump has sought a young male audience by associating himself with the content creators they watch. Interviews with Elon Musk and comedian Theo Von have also propelled the former president’s Gen-Z appeal. Mr. Trump has referred to his 18 year old son, Barron, as his “secret weapon” in courting Gen Z, often seeking his advice.
Other than the occasional social media interview or guest appearance, the Trump campaign has largely seemed to leave the Gen Z voter base alone in favor of Trump’s older audience. However, this move may prove fatal to his campaign as the question regarding President Biden’s senility has suddenly shifted to Trump. Many find the former president, age 78, to be showing signs of fading mental acuity as often as they’ve accused Biden of the same. Trump’s recent rallies have found him speaking for an average of about an hour and a half of what some call “rambling”, as compared to Harris’s tighter, more focused 20-30 minute speeches. Mr. Trump has also had a few recent instances of mixing up people and places during rallies, such as repeatedly referring to Rep. Nancy Pelosi as 2024 GOP presidential primary candidate Nikki Haley. While concerns of Trump’s age have begun to rise, they have not gained as much traction as the bipartisan concern regarding Biden. The likelihood of this affecting Mr. Trump’s polling is unlikely, but yet to be seen.
The results of the presidential election are still ambiguous as Harris and Trump’s polls in swing states are virtually tied. 2022 data from Statista finds that only 49% – roughly twenty million – of eligible voters ages 18-24 are registered to vote. The impact of that potential forty million young voters could easily sway the tides of the upcoming election. Harris and Trump’s efforts towards reaching this demographic are clear, but who’s effectiveness still remains to be seen.